Guizhou Moutai (600519): Performance exceeds expectations and 2019 is ready to go

Guizhou Moutai (600519): Performance exceeds expectations and 2019 is ready to go
Event: The company released its 2018 annual report, with a total revenue of 77.2 billion U.S. dollars, an annual increase of 26.4%, exceeding the estimated 75 billion U.N. companies; net profit attributable to mothers was 35.2 billion, an increase of 30.0%, exceeding the 34 billion yuan of performance forecast.A single Q4 company achieved revenue of 222.30,000 yuan, an annual increase of 34.1%; net profit attributable to mother 104.70,000 yuan, an increase of 47 in ten years.6%. Q4 increased the volume of Moutai liquor shipments, and the revenue growth exceeded expectations.Initial sales of Moutai 3.25 for the first time, growing by 7 per year.5%, exceeding market expectations.The company’s Q4 exceeded the expected maximum doggrass zodiac wine, and the volume of fine wines is expected to expand.Company headquarters sales of Moutai 654.8.7 billion US dollars, an annual growth of 25%; single Q4 Maotai liquor sales income of 192.20,000 yuan, an increase of 37 in ten years.4%, the growth rate increased significantly compared with 2018Q3.The highest selling price of Moutai in 2018 was 201.70,000 yuan, an annual increase of 16.The 3% increase in ton price is due to the company’s increase of the ex-factory price of Maotai Feitian by 18% at the end of 2017.In addition, the proportion of direct sales in 2018 was 10 in 2017.7% dropped to 5.9%, the proportion of combined low-grade Maotai liquor sales increased, and the current ton price increase is slightly lower than 18%. Focusing on the 133 strategy, the price of a series of wines increased significantly.The company further promoted the 133 strategy and vigorously developed a series of wines. In 2018, the sales revenue of the series of wines exceeded the 8 billion target and exceeded the growth rate of 39.9%; sales were flat compared to the same period last year, and the price of wine per tonne was 27.1 Initially, growth is 40 per year.5%; The gross profit margin of the 2018 series is 71.1%, a year increase of 8.3 units. The increase in gross profit margin decreased the supplementary selling expenses, and the performance exceeded expectations again.Benefiting from the Feitian price increase in 2018, the company’s internal gross margin level was 91.1%, an increase of 1 per year.3 units.Q4 2018 selling expenses -2.740,000 yuan, annual sales expenses of 25.72 trillion, sales expense ratio 3.3%, down by 1 every year.6 units.In terms of split selling expenses, advertising and marketing expenses are reduced by 3 each year.US $ 900 million is expected to be the reason for the company’s excessive accrual in the first three quarters.The above-mentioned reasons contribute to the company’s return to its parent’s net profit growing by 30% per year, which is higher than the revenue growth rate. Q4 account receipts increased month-on-month, and operating cash flow was eye-catching.The company received advance accounts 135 at the end of the year.770,000 yuan, an increase of 21 over the end of the third quarter.6%, indicating that dealers actively paid in the fourth quarter, stocking Spring Festival sales. The company received 842 in cash for selling goods in 2018.70,000 yuan, an increase of 30 in ten years.8%, benefiting from the company’s 2018 Feitian price increase and the 2019 Spring Festival ahead of schedule. Investment suggestion: The company’s revenue growth target for 2019 is 14%, and the completion is expected to be small. At the same time, increasing the proportion of direct sales will help further increase the gross profit level.We expect net profit attributable to mothers to be 425 in 2019/20/21.4/498.9/579.7 trillion, 武汉夜网论坛 +20 for ten years.8% / 17.3% / 16.2%, the current market value corresponds to PE 23.8/20.3/17.5 times.Maintain “Buy” rating. Risk warning: macroeconomic downturn, food safety issues, fierce competition in the industry, channel sales are lower than expected.