Health Yuan (600380) company research: medium and long-term business partners plan to land the company, long-term growth can be expected
Event: The company announced a medium- and long-term business partner plan to motivate the fund to withdraw non-net profit for 2018 (excluding the performance of Livzon Group and Livuzumab) (2.
9 billion) as the base number. In the assessment integration (2019-2028), the compound growth rate of net profit is 15%.
That is, the non-net profit assessment for 2019-2028 is 3, respectively.
3.3 billion, 3.
8.3 billion, 4.
4.1 billion, 5.
07 billion, 5.
8.3 billion, 6.
7.1 billion, 7.
7.1 billion, 8.
87 billion, 10.
20 billion, 11.
The company takes the annual net profit composite indicator as the measurement indicator, and implements excessive progressive accrual for each period of incentive fund. If the compound performance growth rate is 15% -20%, the excess part is accrued as 25% as incentive fund.
If the compound performance growth rate is greater than 20%, an excess of 35% is used as an incentive fund.
Incentive funds work with employee self-funded funds to buy stocks in shareholding plans.
A conservative estimate is that the company’s 2019-2020 北京桑拿洗浴保健 performance is expected to exceed expectations.
The company deducted 6 in 2018 as a whole.
3.1 billion. If we follow our profit forecast, Livzon Group (excluding Livuzumab) will contribute non-net profit from 2019 to 20205.
70 billion, 6.
9.4 billion; assuming Livzumab remains stable, affecting non-net profit deductions1.
3.9 billion, which is calculated according to the just-completed index, and the healthy net deduction of non-net profit for 2019-2020 is about 7.
6.4 billion (2019Q1-3 has reached 7).
3.2 billion, long-term high probability will exceed expectations), 9.
3.8 billion, net profit attributable to mother is about 8.
07 billion, 9.
The company continues to explore innovative incentive mechanisms, and long-term growth can be expected.
The company’s confidence in budesonide inhalation solution was also demonstrated in the short term.
Respiratory pipelines continue to advance: more than 20 products under development, 18 pre-clinical R & D, 1 clinical, 3 clinically approved, 3 production declarations, 1 registration application submitted, 2 registrations approved.
Nine of these projects were evaluated and selected as the major high-end preparations for science and technology major projects of “Major New Drug Creation” in 2017.
Approved for registration: Compound toluene or urea bromide solution (marketed), levosalbutamol absorption solution (entered priority review and approved for exemption from clinical marketing).
Declared production: ipratropium bromide aerosol, budesonide aerosol, budesonide inhalation suspension.
In clinical: Tobramycin rehabilitation solution.
Clinical approvals: Salmeterol, fluticasone, loose inhalation powder, formoterol fumarate absorption solution, clomoxacin absorption solution.
Submission of registration declaration: Alternative to inhalation solution of tobromide.
Looking ahead to 2019, we believe that Livzon Group will continue to contribute stable performance, Livuzumab R & D layout continues to advance, and the compound in the field of respiratory medicine will replace the toluene bromide inhalation solution to start contributing to the performance.Expected to exceed expectations.
We expect net profit attributable to mothers to be 8, 20-19.6.3 billion, 9.
9.4 billion, 11.
44 trillion, corresponding to a growth rate of 23.
EPS are 0.
45 yuan, 0.
51 yuan, 0.
59 yuan, corresponding PE is 23x, 20x, 17x, maintaining the “buy” level.
Risk reminders: Drug sales are less than expected; risks of failure to develop new drugs; and risks of drug prices.