Kailaiying (002821) company comment: Dingzeng helps long-term development of API + formulation integration, biological CDMO strategy is steadily advancing

Kailaiying (002821) company comment: Dingzeng helps long-term development of API + formulation integration, biological CDMO strategy is steadily advancing

Event: The company announced the 2019 non-public offering plan on July 20, 2019.

The proposed non-public offering does not exceed 2314.

10,000 shares, raising less than 2.3 billion yuan.

Basic situation of non-public offering: The amount of this non-public offering does not exceed 10% of the company’s total share capital, that is, it does not exceed 2314.

10,000 shares, and the raised funds shall not exceed 2.3 billion.

No more than 10 specific 天津夜网 objects, and the sale period is 12 months.

For the “Kelley British Life Science and Technology (Tianjin) Co., Ltd. one-stop service platform expansion project of innovative drugs”, “the construction project of biological macromolecule innovative drugs and preparations R & D and production platform” and “innovative drug CDMO production base construction project” threeA project, as well as replenishing liquidity.

Significance of non-public offering to the company: The strategic positioning of the fundraising investment project is mainly to consolidate and integrate the small molecule center CDMO business, while helping the company expand its business into the field of biopharmaceuticals and preparations CDMO.

In terms of business: strategically expand the CDMO business of biopharmaceuticals and expand its business scope.

Expand the production capacity of preparations, improve the company’s “API + preparations” one-stop service, and improve service competitiveness.

Further optimize the company’s financial structure and promote sustainable business development.

On the client side: After the business expansion of CDMO and CDMO for biopharmaceuticals, they can both meet the needs of emerging pharmaceutical companies and can also accept orders from customers of existing large pharmaceutical companies.

Return on investment of fund-raising projects: The company’s three fund-raising projects have a good overall return on investment, all of which have better economic benefits.

After the three projects are put into production, the total estimated annual income is 31.

1.3 billion, is expected to contribute net profit6.

3 billion.

From the perspective of the company’s historical fundraising projects, we believe that the probability of completion is high.

The company’s long-term investment logic remains the same: the company has carried out all-round deepening in the field of CDMO, large molecules, small molecules (API + preparation integration), CRO + CDMO integration, covering the various life cycles of drug development.

The company continues to increase investment in research and development and production capacity, laying a good foundation for long-term healthy development in the future and providing power.

With the current surge of innovative drugs, as the leader of the CDMO switching indispensable for the innovative drug industry chain, Gloriac is expected to usher in sustained and rapid development for several years.

Earnings forecasts and investment advice.

Regardless of additional dilution for the time being, we estimate that the company’s net profit attributable to its mother in 2019-2021 will be 5 respectively.

7.3 billion, 7.

6.9 billion, 10.

26 ppm, an increase of 33.

8%, 34.

1%, 33.

5%.

EPS are 2 respectively.

48 yuan, 3.

32 yuan, 4.

43 yuan, corresponding PE is 39x, 29x, 22x.

We believe that the company is a technology-driven domestic CDMO leader. Large customers have gradually stabilized and trust has gradually increased. Subsequent project reserves have also been formed, benefiting from the continuous advancement of the domestic MAH system.

In the next few years, the company is expected to achieve faster growth in the performance of commercialization projects, and equity incentives fully mobilize employees’ enthusiasm and full strength.

According to the implementation of the company’s daily major contracts, we believe that the company’s performance is more certain.

In the future, the cumulative investment capacity of expansion projects will be released, and long-term growth can be expected.

We expect the company’s performance growth rate in the next three years is expected to maintain a rapid growth of 30% -35%, and maintain a “Buy” rating.

Risk reminder: clinical stage project risk, commercial project risk, macromolecular CDMO strategy implementation exceeds expectations, and project issuance is less than expected risks.