Hengli Hydraulics (601100): Long-term results supported by Q3 results are in line with expectations

Hengli Hydraulics (601100): Long-term results supported by Q3 results are in line with expectations

Event: The company released the third quarter report of 2019, and the first three quarters of 2019 achieved revenue of 38.

34 ppm, an increase of 21 in ten years.

32%, realizing net profit attributable to mother 9.

170,000 yuan, an increase of 27 in ten years.

49%, net profit after deduction to return to mother 8.

190,000 yuan, an increase of 32 in ten years.

08%.

Achieved revenue of 10 in the third quarter.

41 ppm, a ten-year increase4.

52%, net profit attributable to mothers2.

4.6 billion, a decline of 3 every year.

91%, the performance basically meets market expectations.

  Opinion: The current and third quarter results are slightly expected.

In Q3, the net profit attributable to the mother increased slightly.

91%, we think that it is mainly affected by the oil cylinder, which has two reasons: 1) the first quarter is the downstream OEM’s promotion season, this year’s promotion intensity is switched, the initial cylinder stocking is interrupted, leading to demand overdraft in advance; 2) the second quarter sales of downstream excavators appearAfter obvious fluctuations, the market demand of the OEMs and the market size actively controlled the output, and the company’s orders shifted accordingly.

Due to the relatively stable market share of the company’s cylinders, and the delivery cycle is about one month, the company’s cylinder performance basically corresponds to the sales data of excavators. The market’s performance in the third quarter has been expected.

  The oil cylinder business continued to grow steadily, and the pump valve business contributed elasticity.

1) Cylinders: Affected by the continuous warming of the downstream industry and the continuous improvement of the company’s product competitiveness, the company’s product sales have increased. Among them, the revenue of excavator cylinders has increased by 15%, and the revenue of non-standard cylinders has increased by 8%.Stable; 2) Pumps and valves: The sales volume of pumps and valves for hydraulic technology excavators of the subsidiary continued to increase, hydraulic technology revenue increased by 86%, and the existing structure of the pumps and valves business continued to decrease.Will contribute a new size of flexibility to the company’s performance.

  The demand for downstream excavators was sufficient, and the company’s performance was maintained.

Excavator sales in September were 15,799 units, an increase of more than 17.

8%, exceeding market expectations again, January to September 2019 sales of excavators 17.

90,000 units, an increase of 14 in ten years.

7%, of which large / medium / small digging increased by 5 respectively.

7% / 8.

5% / 15.

7%, the machine replacement trend does not change.

According to our analysis, under the background of the macroeconomic downturn, infrastructure may become an important driver of a stable economy. Under the influence of multiple factors such as stable infrastructure, extra debt, machine replacement and environmental protection, the demand for excavators has been reduced, and the company’s performance has been realizedDesigned to support.

  The 夜来香体验网 second phase of the company’s foundry has been put into operation, which is expected to increase the company’s performance.

The second phase of the foundry has been put into operation in October. It is expected that the company’s first phase + second phase castings production capacity will reach 5.

5 Every year, it can support the output of 4-5 billion pumps and valves. In addition to satisfying self-use, the surplus casting capacity can be exported, and the export will increase the company’s performance.

  Maintain profit forecast and maintain “Buy” level.

Maintain profit forecast, and expect net profit attributable to mothers to be 12 in 2019-2021.

68/14.

67/17.

02 trillion, the corresponding EPS is 1.

44/1.

66/1.

93 yuan / share, currently sustainable 38.The RMB 84 (2019/10/30) corresponding PE is 27X / 23X / 20X. Considering the company’s high industry 佛山桑拿网 barriers and good competition pattern, the company’s performance is flexible and certain, so it maintains a “Buy” rating.
  Risk warning: sales of downstream engineering machinery decline; pump valve business progress is less than expected; overseas business expansion is less than expected.