Qiaqia Foods (002557): Nuts volume in line with expectations has risen, eye-catching performance

Qiaqia Foods (002557): Nuts volume in line with expectations has risen, eye-catching performance

Investment Highlights: Event: The company released its semi-annual report for 2019 and achieved operating income19.

870,000 yuan, an increase of 6 in ten years.

02%; net profit attributable to mother 2.

20 ppm, an increase of 28 in ten years.

08%.

Single and second quarter realized operating income9.

47 ppm, an increase of 11 years.

78%; net profit attributable to mothers1.

07 million yuan, an increase of 20 in ten years.

80%.

Investment rating and estimation: The company’s revenue performance is slightly lower than expected, and its performance is in line with expectations. Considering that the nut business is concentrated in the second half of the peak season, maintain the 2019-21 revenue forecast48.

6, 54.

4, 60.

1.5 billion US dollars, each year increased by 15.

8%, 12.

0%, 10.

4%, maintaining the forecast of net profit attributable to mothers in 2019-215.

4, 6.

2, 7.

1 ‰, with annual growth of 24.

5%, 15.

7%, 14.

3%, corresponding EPS is 1.

06, 1.

23, 1.

41 yuan, the latest closing price corresponding to 19-20 years PE is 23, 20 times, maintain the buy rating, target price 30.

8 yuan, corresponding to 25xPE in 2020.

As the foundation of the brand and channel owned by the sub-sector leader in the sunflower seed industry, Qiaqia has continued to accelerate the development of the company under the adjustment of the internal organizational structure and the rapid volume of new products in the past two years.The method of fully exerting e-commerce continuously expands the advantages of channels, and at the same time maintains the steady growth of the income side through the continuous introduction of new categories and promotion, and is optimistic about the company’s long-term development potential.

Revenue growth improved as expected, yellow bags and blue bags performed well, and yellow bags focused on the peak season to promote accelerated growth: the company’s operating income increased in the second quarter of 1919.

78%, 10 times faster than Q1.

52pct, gradually return to a reasonable level.

In terms of products, 19H1 main red bag products achieved high number growth and volume and price contributions; blue bag series achieved growth and growth of more than 30%; yellow bag daily nut growth increased more than 40%, of which blue bag yellow bag Q2 revenue increasedThe speed is further accelerated than the Q1 chain.

Initially, since the peak season of the nut series is mainly concentrated in the second half of the year, the company also announced a new product launch in July to complete the comprehensive upgrade of the nut series. Although the growth rate of yellow bags in the first half of the year was slower than planned, it basically met expectations. In the second half of the year,It will concentrate its efforts to accelerate growth and expectation; the growth of the blue bag is good in the first half of the year, the introduction of new flavors and channel penetration promote the expansion of contributions, and the expected goal is achieved without worry; the demand for red bags is relatively stable. Although there is no price increase bonus in the second half of the year,It is expected that the sales end will still maintain positive growth; on the whole, it is expected that 19H2 revenue growth will be faster than 19H1, and the nut business is an important aspect in the second half of the year.

The increase in profitability and the improvement in gross profit margin were mainly due to direct price increases, the expansion of scale effects, and the contribution of lower growth rates: 19Q2 company’s net interest rate11.

2%, a year to raise 0.

52pct, mainly benefited from the increase in gross profit margin, but other expense ratios have increased, but the rate has gradually decreased.

19Q2 company gross profit margin 33.

4%, an increase of 3 per year.2pct, mainly benefited from the direct price increase of the main red bag products and yellow bags in 19 years, the profit elasticity brought by the expansion of the daily scale effect of nuts and the reduction of the conversion rate.

In terms of different products, the gross profit margin of 19H1 sunflower seeds was 35.

28%, a year up 0.

38pct, the price increase bonus and structural upgrade basically hedged the cost increase caused by raw material upgrade; gross profit margin of nuts 21.

26%, an increase of 5 per year.

54pct, the improvement is obvious.

Although there was no direct price increase contribution in the second half of the year, the increase in gross profit margin due to the scale effect of daily nuts is expected to be more significant than in the first half. At the same time, as the industry leader, the bargaining power has improved, and the second half of the year will continue to benefit from the increase.The 苏州夜网论坛 increase in profitability brought about by the rate reduction is expected to contribute more than 1 pct to the increase in the company’s overall net interest rate.

The expense ratio remained stable overall, and the company’s overall expense ratio improved slightly in the second quarter. The sales / management and R & D / financial expense ratios of the company in 19Q2 were 13 respectively.

2%, 7.

0%, 0.

1%, ten years +0.

85, -0.

55, +0.

60pct, the rate is expected to remain relatively stable every year in the second half of the year.

The category expansion logic is steadily fulfilled, and the full development of the nut business is worth looking forward to: the company ‘s Q1 revenue growth has slightly improved due to changes in the dependent variables and the market has improved. Q2 has seen a significant improvement from the previous quarter. At the same time, with the development of the nut business, it is expected that revenue growth in the second halfSpeed up further.

In July, the company held a strategic conference on emerging nut category upgrades in Shanghai. The company carried out unified upgrades in product appearance packaging and marketing methods, and cooperated with Focus to increase elevator advertising and marketing coverage.

In the long term, the long-term growth space of the nut category has obviously increased the seeds, and Qiaqia and the nut industry segmentation ranking have a stronger offline channel advantage, which can form misplaced competition. At present, the company’s nut business is mainly focused on the daily nut single orderProducts in the future, will further enrich the product line, expand channel coverage, and take the nut business as a breakthrough point to “rebuild a negotiation” worth looking forward to.

Catalysts for continued growth: Core product growth exceeds expectations, profit margins increase beyond expectations Core assumptions risks: changes in raw material costs, food safety incidents